OK, people have asked me to comment on Boot Camp Public Beta.

If you’ve been away for the last few weeks, the $13K+ prize to make Windows XP boot on an Intel Mac has been won by two puzzle addicts. Granted that their solution is complex to implement and runs slowly due to the lack of proper video drivers (and others), but it’s still impressive. My Intel Mac mini hasn’t arrived yet, so I can’t speak from firsthand experience, but it seems it overlays just enough legacy BIOS responses on the Mac’s EFI to interact with an complementarily modified Windows XP.

Well, Wil Shipley and others donated money to that effort, and this seems to have convinced Apple, about a week later, to make “Boot Camp” public. It consists of three parts: a firmware upgrade that puts the (optional) legacy BIOS support module into the firmware, a small utility that allows nondestructive repartitioning of an Intel Mac’s hard drive, and a CD containing XP drivers for most (though not all) Intel Mac peripherals. It’s a beta, and some things don’t work yet, but it’s much smoother than the hacked-together version. In effect, the Intel Macs can now be dual-booted with Windows XP; also, people report progress in booting some Linux variants, and Vista support may not be impossible anymore. Ah yes, Apple has also stated that something like this will be a part of Leopard aka Mac OS X 10.5, which will be demoed at the upcoming WWDC and may be out around the end of the year. And AAPL stock shot up nearly 10% over the next two days…

So much for the facts. Interpretations are diverse; in fact, I haven’t seen so many divergent comments since Intel Macs were announced last June.

As usual, after a couple of days, Gruber, Siracusa and a few others posted excellent analyses of the situation. However, much of the immediate commentary was – let’s charitably say – weird. Immediate doom has been predicted for Apple first and foremost, as well as for Microsoft, for Dell, and for software developers. Let’s look at that last idea first.

Most non-developers are saying that, obviously, Mac developers will now fold up and die, or migrate to become Windows developers in droves, or (if they support both platforms) discontinue Mac versions of their products. After all, all Mac support questions can now be answered by “boot into XP”. And Windows is where the money is, right?

Wrong. Let’s check each type of developer separately. There are the two big ones: Microsoft and Adobe. Microsoft obviously won’t close the Macintosh Business Unit (MBU); I hear it’s their top division in terms of income per employee. Obviously, most Mac users want Mac versions of their applications, even if they have to be from Microsoft. The same goes for Adobe products; most of them were, originally, ported from the Mac to Windows anyway. And even if Adobe is having a hard time porting their stuff from CodeWarrior to Xcode, eventually they’ll do so.

At the other end of the spectrum are small developers like myself, up to small 3- or 5-person shops. Very few of those are multiplatform. I can safely say that an overwhelming percentage are Mac-only because developing on the Mac, for the Mac, is enjoyable and lucrative. Read Wil Shipley’s interview and his WWDC Student Talk and see what I mean. Here’s a pertinent part:

I love the Mac user base because they tend to be people who are into trying out new software and recommending it to each other and giving the little guy a chance. Windows users have demonstrated, ipso facto, that they do not believe in the little guy.

The two types of Windows users I’ve identified at my café are:

a) I use Windows to run Word and Excel and browse the web (and read e-mail in my web browser), and

b) I’m a programmer and I spend all my time in a Windows IDE or hacking around with my system.

The problem is that market (a) already has all the software they think they’ll ever need, and clearly isn’t into looking beyond what they already have or they’d have noticed they could do all that they currently do, and more, but much easier, on a Mac. And market (b) is too small for me to aim any software at it.

No doubt most non-developers (and Windows developers like (b) above) believe that developers mostly hate their jobs and just do whatever distasteful thing is necessary to maximize their income. Well, it’s not really that way; granted that many of us have to work to pay for the groceries, and Mac-related jobs are not really plentiful (yet!), but many .NET slaves spend extra hours at their home Macs to write really cool software.

In other words, we write for the Mac because it’s satisfying and would do it even for free, all day, every day (assuming the grocery problem to be solved somehow). Would I migrate XRay to Windows? No way. The tools aren’t there, the APIs are uncool, and the Windows community – well, as far as I can tell, there’s no Windows community at all. And regarding the market size, better a small fish in a small pond, and all that.

So what about the middle-sized software companies? Here the situation may not be as clearcut. It depends a lot on company culture, I suppose. Are the people in charge active Mac users but also target Windows just because, well, they might sell a lot of copies over there? Or are they primarily Windows developers which also have a Mac version championed by a couple of vocal believers among their programmers? It could be either way, and only time will tell. But should some of the latter type close out their Mac support, they might have done it anyway sooner or later.

Now, game developers are a special case. Discounting for the moment some diehard Mac-only game developers, reactions among the multiplatform gamers have been very cautious. After all, a game user is the person most likely to dual-boot into Windows just to run the very latest game at full speed – though such a fanatic is still more likely to have a dedicated, souped-up PC just for that purpose. So, widespread availability of Boot Camp might, really, lead some game companies to neglect Mac versions, purely for economical reasons.

Update: Ouch, I forgot to put in John C. Randolph’s comment on this:

Apple now lets you use the most popular game loader!

…and he’s sooo right!

Stay tuned for more comments on this…

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